Round one leaders

If recent history is anything to go by, one of the current top 10 will likely be named Champion Golfer of the Year on Sunday evening.

In the past two decades, only three players have come from further back after round one to win The Open – and only one from outside the top 20.

A trio of Europeans make up that club, with Padraig Harrington (2008), Henrik Stenson (2016) and Francesco Molinari (2018) bucking a trend that is favourable to tonight’s top 10.

Stenson was five shots off the lead in T12 before coming through to win The 145th Open by three, while Molinari was four strokes back from Kevin Kisner in T18 before climbing the leaderboard at Carnoustie two years later.

Like Stenson, Harrington was also five back but came through a tightly-bunched pack from T38 with rounds of 68, 72 and 69 to successfully defend the Claret Jug.

Round one at The 153rd Open ended with 19 players inside the top 10, each of whom will take heart from this slice of history. 

Last year’s winner Xander Schauffele and 2023 Champion Golfer Brian Harman were both T4 at the end of day one, while 2022 winner Cameron Smith was third and Shane Lowry second before winning in 2019.

In the past 20 years, only Tiger Woods (2005), Rory McIlroy (2014) and Jordan Spieth (2017) have either led or co-led and gone on to become Champion, a list XX will hope to add his name to on Sunday evening.

As for the round one leaders who did not go on to win in that time, The Open has brought mixed results.

While he finished in a to-date career-high of second at The Open in 2012, Adam Scott suffered heartbreak at Royal Lytham & St Annes.

The Australian led by a shot after round one and controlled most of the Championship, building a four-stroke lead with four holes to go on Sunday. But four successive bogeys saw Scott miss out by just one stroke to Ernie Els.

Other near-misses include Cameron Young in 2022, who led by two strokes after an opening-round 64 but missed out by one shot to Champion Golfer Cameron Smith, and his fellow American Kisner, who held a one-shot advantage after Thursday in 2018 but finished two behind Molinari.

Champion Golfers McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Louis Oosthuizen have also suffered the fate of leading on Thursday but losing narrowly on Sunday in recent years.

However, leading after round one is no guarantee of a strong Sunday finish.

Dustin Johnson led The 144th Open by a shot after the first 18 holes but eventually fell to T49, 11 shots back, while amateur Christo Lamprecht held a share of the lead in 2023 but slumped to a T74 finish.

However, the most notable leaderboard tumble belongs to American JB Holmes at Royal Portrush six years ago.

Holmes started The 148th Open brilliantly and shot an opening-round 66 to lead by one shot from eventual winner Shane Lowry. He stayed towards the top of the leaderboard all week and was T3 at the end of round three, putting him the penultimate group on Sunday.

However, amid heavy rain and strong winds, he struggled badly and shot a 16-over-par round of 87 to fall down to T67.